Poll: Trump, Biden Statistically Tied in Pennsylvania in Hypothetical Race
Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are statistically tied in…
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Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are statistically tied in a hypothetical 2024 presidential match-up, according to a National Public Affairs poll.
The poll, published on Thursday, shows that 45 percent of likely voters in the Quaker State back Trump in a head-to-head match-up with Biden, who takes 47 percent of the response. As the poll is within the 3.9 percentage point margin of error, the candidates are statistically tied. Another eight percent of responses are undecided.
Trump’s former White House political director, Bill Stepien, serves as a partner at National Public Affairs, and Macy Stepien is its executive vice president of polling and data analysis. In a memo providing analysis of the poll, they note that Trump holds an advantage among independents, while Biden leads with women:
Notably, Trump currently overperforms among middle-aged men (+35), voters without a college degree (+24), those who live in the Pittsburgh media market (+32) and Independents (+9). Whereas, Biden has a strong lead among key voting groups like women (+25), college graduates (+27), those who live in the Philadelphia media market (+18) and younger voters (+7).
Pennsylvania was a crucial win for Trump on his way to victory over a twice-failed presidential candidate in 2016. He bested Clinton by more than 44,000 votes before Biden won the state back in 2020 by nearly double that margin.
The poll also finds that Sen Bob Casey (D-PA) is vulnerable in his bid for reelection. He trails a generic Republican by two points, putting him in a statistical tie, considering the margin of error. Notably, Casey won the state by more than 13 percentage points in 2018 over Lou Barletta.
